The role of luck in cannabis

“I would rather have a general who was lucky than one who was good.” Napoleon

In society and the cannabis industry, we are regularly inundated with canned advice on how to be successful, both individually and as a company.  As if just working hard, networking and being shrewd is all it takes to succeed.  In cannabis, firms are told that winning is just about producing the best products, keeping costs low and being true to community values.   If only running a cannabis business was that simple and you were the only one with the secret formula. 

I won’t deny there is some truth in ‘how to’ bromides but there is also much that is neglected.  One feature is the critical role of luck. 

Many influential leaders and thinkers (e.g., Napoleon, Gladwell, Taleb, Machiavelli) consider happenstance i.e. having good and avoiding bad luck to be the most important determinant of success, as opposed to a person or organization’s decisions & actions.

I define luck simply as: success or failure brought about by fate (i.e. god) or randomness/chance (i.e. mathematical probability). 

Luck is everywhere.

Consider the sinking of the Titanic. It’s well documented that a tangled combination of around 10 things led to the Titanic hitting the iceberg and sinking.  These ranged from the key lookout not having his binoculars that day to the collision point; If the ship had hit the iceberg 10 feet over, the Titanic would have survived.

The same is true for cannabis.  I have seen many examples of luck radically affecting business results. A company gets their license earlier than other applicants because the other reviewer was off sick for two weeks.  A cannabis investor decides to back your firm because his kid wants to work for your edibles business. Or, in the all too familiar and tragic case you are busted for possession and end up in jail just because you happen to be the wrong colour.

Firms will rise or fall based on a randomness you cannot control.  To ignore luck's contribution is to be naïve to how life unfolds.

Can one influence the cosmic roll of the dice in their favour?  I’m not sure but I do consider the hand of luck in my consulting work and coaching:

Promoting good luck
> Having confidence - Tennessee Williams got it right when he said, “Luck is believing you're lucky.”
 
> Being open minded and polymathic - Lucky people seem to be more instinctive, curious and less prone to over thinking;

Avoiding bad luck
> Expect problems - Identify and mitigate likely risks, including possible Black Swan events;

> Be prepared - Foster a culture of resilience and adaptability including having flexible processes and systems.

Of course, preparation, hard work and cleverness are key ingredients for success. But so is being comfortable with the role of chance.

#chance #luck #blackswan #randomness #Taleb #risk