The 2025 Global Cannabis Industry: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
Prohibition Partners, a leading London-based cannabis research firm, just published their annual Global Cannabis Report.
Below are some key highlights and implications:
The global cannabis sector - medical and recreational - has continued its relentless growth and could hit US$55.3B in revenue by 2028 (a 75/25 recreational/medical split). Be cautious, however, with market forecasts as they often have methodological and data collection gaps.
What is a fact is the steady advancement of reform on every continent. Today, legal cannabis is a mixed group of markets at different stages of development.
---> The Good
- Regulatory reform and declining stigma is occurring in South America, the EU and Africa. The foot draggers include the UK, France and the US.
- Consumers are benefiting from lower prices, improved quality, and greater choice.
- Producers are now leveraging a wealth of market data, lessons and a global supply chain.
- Telemedicine platforms in Germany, Australia, Poland are increasing access to cannabis and improving convenience, yet they also face rising government scrutiny.
- Poland, Australia, and Germany are now major markets, joining early movers like Canada, Israel, and the US.
- The modest Dutch and German recreational pilot programs should pick up steam in 2025.
- Canada has extended its export leadership (~70% of the medical cannabis trade) with other regions like Africa and South American joining the party.
- Oceania is on its way to becoming a major producer region
Savvy and funded North Americans operators can find new growth opportunities, alliances and bargain investments in the EU, South America and Africa.
---> The Bad
- Older Canadian and US markets are experiencing slowing growth. However, this traces to lower prices (not consumption) and legalization in border States.
- The human condition is still driving irrational exuberance in new markets
- Intoxicating hemp is propelling the American THC-based category, but also introducing risks for some cannabis firms not to mention regulatory conflict.
Global operators should still leverage North American best practices, genetics and brands.
---> The Ugly
- Ongoing delays with US Rescheduling breeds uncertainty.
- Germany is going to the polls again. A new government may not be as canna-friendly to current and future reforms.
- Valuations remain low, hindering capital raises, talent attraction and deal making.
- The illicit market remains embedded in every market, despite (weak) government enforcement.
- Ill-informed trade restrictions (EU, Israel) are threatening to emerge.
Successful cannabis companies will prioritize fiscal resilience, operational flexibility and strategic optionality.
Call me. I help companies explore and prudently tap international growth markets and JVs.
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