“Meet the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss” Canada’s 2025 Election and Cannabis

Roger Daltrey belted out this non-ironic clarion call on the Who’s 1971 single, Won’t Get Fooled Again. This anti revolution song was critiquing the naïve hippie movement of the 1960s.

These lyrics are also a good metaphor for the impact of Canada’s recent federal election.

The Liberal Party won the most seats and will soon form a minority government. Essentially, the same Liberals with their NDP coalition partners will govern for the foreseeable future.

The New Boss - Prime Minister Mark Carney - was an economic advisor to the Old Boss, former PM Justin Trudeau.

One Canadian investment bank said this morning [sic] that the outcome will have “no discernable impact to LPs & retailers”.

I beg to differ with this milquetoast assessment.

In every cannabis market and regulatory framework an absence of a positive IS a negative.

This election result will have 4 deleterious consequences for Canada’s weed industry.

1️⃣ Another bitter pill to swallow

During the campaign, cannabis was not mentioned in a meaningful way by any leader or party, further signalling a lack of respect for our sizable industry.

This inattention also highlights our sector’s poor influence among politicians and policymakers.

Last but not least, medical cannabis patients still have to endure the injustice of paying tax on their medicine.

2️⃣ The government’s Vig continues

High excise taxes and fees remain THE issue for the industry. An average, effective excise tax rate of 30-35% will stunt profit-seeking and lead to further LP bankruptcies.

Given their difficult budgetary situation and other priorities, the Liberals are unlikely to reduce tax rates.

3️⃣ Persistent onerous regulations

Generation 1.0 (i.e. nanny state) regulations will continue to complicate LP operations, drive higher than necessary costs and hinder the evolution of brands.

4️⃣ A looming recession?

Real Canadian wages have stagnated over the past 10 years, a period when the Liberal Party governed (both standalone and in conjunction with the NDP). They will increase already high levels of spending. This will lead to (more) ballooning deficits and probably higher interest rates and indirect taxes.

These effects – coupled with the impact of American tariffs – could easily tip Canada into a recession, leading to higher unemployment and lower consumer spending on weed.

In fact, declining real incomes over the last 10 yrs. probably contributed to the slowdown in cannabis retail sales over the past 3-4 years.

Buckle in LPs and retailers.

#canada #LPs #cannabis #Liberals #MarkCarney #excisetaxes