Is There a Cannabis Nostradamus?
"Every word has consequences. Every silence, too." Jean-Paul Sartre
Unlike Nostradamus, most cannabis pundits will get it wrong with their bold, repeatedly announced, and evidence-lacking predictions. Poor forecasting, however, doesn’t only come from know-it-all individuals; seemingly credible organizations like banks, governments, professional services and research firms are guilty, too.
The list of forecasting snafus is long, spanning the entire cannabis world. Recent examples include when SAFE will be passed (multiple fails here), the timing of rescheduling, and the size of Germany’s total addressable market (weekly miss).
The problem is that people take bad crystal ball gazing seriously, not to mention that feel-good predictions tend to spread like wildfire in our beaten-up sector. The lack of conclusive data and best practices leads naïve or desperate investors & lenders, policy makers & entrepreneurs to poor decision-making and being manipulated by unseemly capital markets actors.
To be fair, we shouldn’t throw the baby out with the bathwater. Many pundits are well-meaning and knowledgeable, and anticipating the future remains a vital planning activity.
Fact is, no one really knows where our industry is going in the medium-long term. Even those who have gotten it right in the past could have been lucky rather than prescient.
Why are forecasters typically wrong?
A) Its tough to be consistently accurate on specifics
Our industry is complex, fast changing and often irrational. Certain issues like regulatory reform can’t be truly understood unless you know the process or are behind the closed doors with the bureaucrats & politicians.
B) Agendas, everywhere
Many of the brashest commentators are stock promoters, marketers and trolls who directly benefit from influencing others - or enjoy stirring the pot.
Here are 5 ways to get a better sense of the future:
1) Separate the noise from the signal
Over time, it’s not hard to detach the balanced and sensible commentary from the biased or histrionic. One should also be level-headed: real prognosticators don’t give away their insights for free, unless they are in the media, naïve or unwise.
2) Corroborate with trustworthy people
Listen to the individuals other shrewd people follow. The latter will be industry veterans who have copped to their mistakes and gaps.
3) Take everything with a grain of salt, until you can validate elsewhere.
4) Stay current
The shelf life of data and axioms can be short. Ignore FOMO, always be learning and don’t eschew contrary viewpoints.
5) Be humble
Never get too far ahead of your professional skis when you make the right call or your public persona reaches new heights.
#forecasting #planning #predictions #safebanking
