Don’t Ignore These Emerging Asian Cannabis Markets in 2024
"Skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been." Wayne Gretzky
Some emerging global cannabis markets like Germany, Israel and Australia get most of the attention.
Japan and Thailand should also be on the consideration list of globally minded LPs and MSOs.
Recent events in these large countries bode well for the rise of vibrant medical cannabis markets by this time next year.
Japan
Conservative Japan took a first tentative step to becoming a major medical cannabis market.
The country’s parliament recently revised its cannabis control law lifting a ban on the use of medicines containing cannabis-derived compounds. This legislative change comes on the heels of growing public support for the use of a medical cannabis for serious ailments. The draft legislation has been sent to the Upper House of Parliament for further deliberation and could take effect by the end of 2024.
While an important first step, this new bill would not create any market opportunities for medical cannabis products whose health outcomes do not have clinically proven outcomes. That leaves – for now - Epidiolex and a couple of other medicines. Though adult use cannabis remains banned, medical cannabis is always the first step on the road to full legalization.
For context, Japan is a country of 125M people, with the 3rd largest economy in the World and an advanced publicly-funded healthcare system.
Thailand
While Japan is rising, Thailand is taking a mulligan for the past 12 months. As background, Thailand became the first Asian country to decriminalize cannabis behind ‘light touch’ regulation and enforcement. The inevitable outcome was a Wild West of growers, products and retailers.
Thailand will course correct in 2024. The Prime Minister recently announced that his government would “rectify” the country’s cannabis policies and allow only medical use as part of an undefined “middle ground” solution (soon to be tabled). Adult use sales were discontinued pending (maybe) new and improved legislation.
New regulations will be an improvement over the first go-around. They will provide clarity for investors, operators and consumers and enable the growth of a rules-based, world class industry. For perspective, Thailand is a country of 70M people with a rich history of cannabis growing and medicinal use, not to mention the destination of 30-40M tourists annually.
Conservative predictions have the combined medical and adult use market hitting $1.5B in 2025. Of course, everything depends on the final regulations.
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