Breaking Down Uplisting: A Bear Case for Rerating

#Uplisting is a good thing for the #cannabis space. However, almost every investor, analyst and MSO is operating under a flawed strategic assumption: that all uplisted cannabis #stocks will rerate higher to CPG, Bev Alc and Tobacco, “the peers” levels. Today, cannabis bankers put MSOs 50-100% lower than the peers on an EV/EBITDA basis.

⚠️ Here’s why rerating might not happen, at least immediately and for everyone.

🍀 The Trulieve experience

Congrats on being the first American cannabis firm on the #NYSE. However, your stock has not performed up to expectations.

Its early but remember this: Trulieve is also one of the best cannabis operators with a strong market position and the biggest 280E benefit.

These middling results matter; a less stellar MSO won’t perform better.

Jamie Campbell, an exhausted but confident industry insider says, “The rerating will not happen overnight and most certainly won’t apply to the whole basket. Increased balance sheet scrutiny won’t overlook outsized UTPs or unsustainable growth.”

💭 Be careful what you wish for

Being the king of a small hill is nothing to brag about. What truly matters to investors, managers and dealmakers are absolute share prices. Cannabis firms could rerate higher and still end up where they are today or even lower, after a broad and deep market pullback.

I wouldn’t be the first to say global stock markets are overvalued and due for a major correction.

👧 She’s just not into you

The existence of a valuation asymmetry says nothing about whether centrifugal financial forces exist to close it. Markets are not efficient. The $34B North American weed industry shouldn’t be in a 5+ year valuation funk but it is.

Cannabis is similar but not the same as the peers. As such, it doesn’t hold that we should automatically be rated the same way as these more mature industries, which leads to my last point.

🫨 Shaky fundamentals

Cheerleaders assert the future is bright, pointing to our large TAM, global growth, and weed’s efficacy as a medicine/ wellness product.

However, here’s what a savvy investment manager would see in cannabis when he/she makes a comparison with the peers:

1️⃣ U.S. legal weed sales declined for the first time in 2025

2️⃣ Price compression, weak brands & few strategic moats

3️⃣ Spotty profitability, cash flow and ROIC at most MSOs

4️⃣ High friction: onerous regulations, fragmented markets etc.

5️⃣ Stigma: cannabis remains illegal and the industry has been an investor graveyard since 2021.

Furthermore, Campbell believes that, “Absent clear guidance from FinCEN and Treasury, the path ahead is positive but unpaved.

Institutional capital will be dipping a toe for months before diving in and passive volume à la Russell 2000 won’t arrive until spring 2027. No silver bullet exists to repair half a decade of depressed valuation.”

I can help you improve your odds of winning over the public markets. Let’s talk.

#uplisting #NYSE #NASDAQ #capitalmarkets #stocks #MSOS #rerating